Gadget Ogling: Smart Rings, Breathalyzing Bike Locks, and Laptop-Sized Transports

<img alt="omate-emanuel-ungaro-smart-ring" src="http://www.technewsworld.com/article_images/story_graphics_xlarge/xl-2015-ungaro-ring-1.jpg" /><br /> <div class="story-body" style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> lcome to Gadget Dreams and Nightmares, the column that relaxes in a cabin in the woods of the latest gadget announcements, with a roaring fire to keep the terrible ones at bay and a s'more ready for the finest new gizmos.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> In our bug trap this week are a smart ring for notifications from your loved one, a breathalyzing bike lock, a payment device that authenticates itself against your heartbeat, and a laptop-sized personal transport system.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> As always, these are not reviews, because I surely would have fallen off the transporter several times and injured myself to the point where I could not write this week's column -- that's more of a slant on my balance than the actual product, I should note. The ratings reflect only how interested I am in using each item, no matter how much I may hurt myself doing so.</div> <div class="story-advertisement" style="background-color: white; float: left; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px; margin-right: 7px; margin-top: 10px;"> <span style="color: #363636; font-size: 18px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;">g Ring</span></div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> Please, whatever you do, don't decide with your loved one it would be a good idea to get rings that vibrate only when you're trying to get in touch with one another.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> Omate and Emanuel Ungaro are offering schmucks the<a href="http://www.omate.com/smart.jewelry.omate.ungaro.html" style="color: #154296; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Ungaro ring</a> (pictured above), which does just that. It buzzes when one designated person, whoever that may be, sends a text message or calls you.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> I can appreciate the concept to an extent, but that doesn't mean I don't think it's completely silly and useless. With a retail price of up to US$2,000, depending on which type of precious metal and which gemstone you choose to adorn it, it's almost ridiculous enough to make me want to try it. Almost.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> <em>Rating: 0 out of 5 Tying the Nots</em></div> <h2 class="subhead" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; color: #363636; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 18px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px; margin: 17px 0px;"> Too Blitzed to Bike</h2> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> While cycling home after a night on the town is probably preferable to getting behind the wheel of a car, it's still a dangerous endeavor. To prevent sozzled cyclists from pedaling home and presenting a danger to themselves and others, <a href="http://www.koowho.com/" style="color: #154296; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">KooWho</a> has dreamed up a bike lock with a difference.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> Rather than asking for a code or key to unlock your ride home, Alcoho-Lock requires a breathalyzer test. Blow into a mouthpiece on the lock, and if you're below the legal limit, it will open and you're free to ride home. If you're too merry, the lock will use your smartphone to text a trusted friend or family member. It's up to them whether to unlock the bike for you or not.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px; text-align: center;"> <iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/T0yQwz_yC5o" width="560"></iframe></div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> It's a fine idea, but there are problems. It's not clear what happens when the battery runs out, and since it's only good for around 40 tests on a single charge, you won't want to get caught out with an Alcoho-Lock without any power to activate the unlocking mechanism. I hope there's some sort of failsafe so your bike doesn't stay clamped forever.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> <em>Rating: 3 out of 5 Crooked Cycles</em></div> <h2 class="subhead" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; color: #363636; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 18px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px; margin: 17px 0px;"> Blood-Pumping Payments</h2> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> The <a href="https://www.nymi.com/the-nymi-band/" style="color: #154296; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Nymi Band</a> is a wristband that affords the wearer the option of paying for goods using near-field communications -- the same technology that drives contactless credit cards and Apple Pay -- from one's wrist. Just like you can with Apple Watch.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> The difference here is Nymi authenticates itself so it can be used only by one person -- and it does so by reading the unique electrical activity of your heart.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px; text-align: center;"> <iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jUO7Qnmc8vE" width="560"></iframe></div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> It's a product that almost defies belief. I can scarcely fathom anything creepier than a machine scanning and recording my heartbeat signature.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> It's one of the reasons I'm so reluctant to try Apple Watch. I get that it'd be somewhat secure if it works as promised, and I appreciate that -- but I find the central idea so unnerving that I can't see this ever taking off.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> And yet, as much as I hate the idea of it, Nymi seems like something that I have to test. There's a peculiar compulsion driving me to get my hands on one of these. Whether it's the notion of facing one's fears, I cannot be sure. I have a gut feeling it's our terrifying future, though, and as masochistic as it seems, I don't want to be left behind.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> <em>Rating: 4 out of 5 Elevated Heartrates</em></div> <h2 class="subhead" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; color: #363636; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 18px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px; margin: 17px 0px;"> Car in a Messenger Bag</h2> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> <a href="http://www.cocoamotors.com/" style="color: #154296; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Cocoa Motors'</a> WalkCar seems like a dream for lazy devils with some semblance of balance. It's a laptop-sized portable transporter that promises to traverse you up to 7.4 miles at speeds of up to 6.2 miles an hour on a three-hour charge.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> It's about the same weight as my laptop as well, at between 4.4 and 6.6 pounds -- the difference lies in whether you have an indoor or outdoor version.</div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px; text-align: center;"> <iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XvG_356itPs" width="560"></iframe></div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.3999996185303px;"> WalkCar is definitely something I'd like to have in my life, at least for a day. I was never much good on a skateboard, though, and I sense the RoboCop-esque armor I'd need to assuage my personal safety fears would negate the positives of WalkCar.</div>

Gadget Ogling: Smart Rings, Breathalyzing Bike Locks, and Laptop-Sized Transports

lcome to Gadget Dreams and Nightmares, the column that relaxes in a cabin in the woods of the latest gadget announcements, with a roaring ...

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Global warming increases 'food shocks' threat

<h2 style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <figure class="lead media-landscape full-width has-caption" style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 32px -54.21875px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="Drought" class="js-image-replace" height="360" src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/183F5/production/_84871399_e1470103-drought-damaged_crops-spl-1.jpg" style="-webkit-user-select: none; border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 645.78125px;" width="640" /></figure><figure class="lead media-landscape full-width has-caption" style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 32px -54.21875px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><figcaption class="media-caption" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="media-caption__text" style="border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.23077; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: small;">Drought is one of the most significant impacts of climate change on food</span></span></span></figcaption></figure><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: small;">Climate change is increasing the risk of severe 'food shocks' where crops fail and prices of staples rise rapidly around the world.<br />Researchers say extreme weather events that impact food production could be happening in seven years out of ten by the end of this century.<br />The authors argue that an over reliance on global trade may make these production shocks worse.<br />The impacts are most likely to be felt across Africa and the Middle East.<br />Poor harvests and low stocks of grains in 2008 combined with a host of other factors to produce a spectacular price rise in cereals, with a <a class="story-body__link-external" href="http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/rwss/docs/2011/chapter4.pdf" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.298039); border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">UN index of prices peaking at 2.8 times higher</a> than it was at the turn of the millennium.</span></span><span class="icon-quote" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://static.bbci.co.uk/news/1.82.0388/img/live-sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px -208px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; border: 0px; display: block; font-family: a; font-stretch: normal; height: 0px; left: -3px; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 0; margin: 0px 0px 6px; overflow: hidden; padding: 32px 0px 0px; position: relative; text-indent: 150%; vertical-align: baseline; width: 32px;"></span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: small;">"If we are coping with demand increase by sustainable intensification, but then we suddenly have a catastrophic year, and we lose a big chunk of the world's calories, everybody will feel it."<br />Prof Tim Benton, UK Global Food Security Programme<br />In 2010-11, a <a class="story-body__link-external" href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/case-studies/russianheatwave" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.298039); border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">heat wave in Russia led to the country's worst drought in 40 years</a>, decimating the grain harvest and leading indirectly, to food riots in North African countries as prices of bread rose rapidly.<br />Now researchers from the US and the UK <a class="story-body__link-external" href="http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.298039); border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">have analysed</a> the chances of extreme weather events causing these types of food shocks as the world warms over the coming century.<br />Looking at the production of rice, wheat, maize and soybeans, the scientists found that the the chances of a one in 100-year production disruption is likely to increase to a one in 30-year event by 2040.<br />From 2070 onward, they estimate that severe shocks, which could see global production drop by 10%, could be happening in seven out of ten years.<br />"It is very difficult to characterise these extreme events and their frequency, but what we do see quite clearly is that events that are very rare in the present day are becoming more frequent in the future," said Kirsty Lewis, one of the authors, from the UK's Met Office.<br />"The most extreme events of the future are likely to become more intense, so potentially larger shocks and more frequent shocks."<br />The <a class="story-body__link-external" href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/en/?utm_source=faohomepage&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=featurebar" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.298039); border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation</a> says that increasing population will drive demand for food up by 60% by 2050 in any case, so there is going to be significant pressure on food production.</span></span><figure class="media-landscape body-width no-caption" style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 24px -24.640625px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="line" class="js-image-replace" datasrc="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/464/media/images/74982000/jpg/_74982321_line976.jpg" height="2" src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/74982000/jpg/_74982321_line976.jpg" style="-webkit-user-select: none; border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 616.203125px;" width="464" /></figure><strong style="background-color: #f3f3f3; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: small;">The fight against global malnutrition</span></strong><figure class="media-landscape body-width no-caption" style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 24px -24.640625px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="Deficiencies in key nutrients can have huge effects on the body such as blindness, a painful swelling of the neck called a goitre, stunting and a weakened immune system." class="js-image-replace" datasrc="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/464/cpsprodpb/81AB/production/_84859133_nutrition.jpg" height="261" src="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/81AB/production/_84859133_nutrition.jpg" style="-webkit-user-select: none; border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 616.203125px;" width="464" /></figure><ul class="story-body__unordered-list" style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; list-style: none; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <li class="story-body__list-item" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.375; list-style: square outside; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: small;">Deficiencies in key nutrients can cause blindness, a painful swelling of the neck called a goitre, stunting and a weakened immune system.</span></span></li> </ul> <ul class="story-body__unordered-list" style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; list-style: none; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <li class="story-body__list-item" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.375; list-style: square outside; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: small;">Scientists are looking at a range of approaches to fight malnutrition - such as cultivating insects and growing meat in laboratories.</span></span></li> </ul> <a class="story-body__link" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/zw2qq6f" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.298039); border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: black; font-size: small;">Could science improve the nutrition of millions?</span></a><figure class="media-landscape body-width no-caption" style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 24px -24.640625px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="line" class="js-image-replace" datasrc="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/464/media/images/74982000/jpg/_74982321_line976.jpg" height="2" src="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/74982000/jpg/_74982321_line976.jpg" style="-webkit-user-select: none; border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 616.203125px;" width="464" /></figure><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: small;">Climate change could be the extra element that rapidly changes the global picture.<br />"We've got these pressures on the food system, part of which is climate change," said Prof Tim Benton, from the <a class="story-body__link-external" href="http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.298039); border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">UK Global Food Security Programme.</a>"But we're highlighting the fact that with weather variability and increases of extremes we are adding a layer of difficulty - Because it happens suddenly within a year, it is more difficult to adjust slowly like we'd cope with demand increases."<br />"If we are coping with demand increase by sustainable intensification, but then we suddenly have a catastrophic year, and we lose a big chunk of the world's calories, everybody will feel it."<br />The biggest impact of these production shocks were likely to be felt across Africa and the Middle East, said the authors.<br />Countries like the UK and the US would be able to cope because more processed food is consumed in the wealthier regions so the changing price of basic commodities was less of a factor in the price.</span></span><figure class="media-landscape full-width has-caption" style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 24px -24.640625px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="drought" class="js-image-replace" datasrc="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/4021/production/_84871461_c0164272-maize_zea_mays_in_drought-spl.jpg" height="360" src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/4021/production/_84871461_c0164272-maize_zea_mays_in_drought-spl.jpg" style="-webkit-user-select: none; border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 616.203125px;" width="640" /></figure><figure class="media-landscape full-width has-caption" style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 24px -24.640625px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><figcaption class="media-caption" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="media-caption__text" style="border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.23077; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: small;">Failed crops combined with trader barriers can lead to sudden price spikes</span></span></span></figcaption></figure><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;"><span style="font-size: small;">"The most vulnerable countries that are going to be worst affected are low income food-deficit countries, predominantly those in sub-Saharan Africa," said author Rob Bailey from Chatham House.<br />"You can imagine that the poorest households in these sorts of countries spending upwards of 50% of their income on food. So if you are in a situation where food prices are increased by 50-100% that leaves them in an almost untenable position," he said.<br />The researchers say that international trade worked well when food was in plentiful supply but when demand increased, countries often imposed export controls which usually made the situation worse.<br />Another factor was biofuel, where land was taken out of food production, tipping the balance towards scarcity.<br />The researchers say that governments must try to understand the risks, rather than simply stockpiling food and grains.<br />There should be efforts to reform world trade so that countries don't retreat behind barriers when crops fail. Significant research on agriculture must be carried out to ensure it can cope with increased demand and increasing temperatures.<br />Developed countries may be able to ride out the worst effects of food shocks, warned Prof Benton, but there might well be other, significant impacts.<br />"In a sense what we're living with Isis today came out of a spark that came from food price rises," he said.</span></span></h2>

Global warming increases 'food shocks' threat

Drought is one of the most significant impacts of climate change on food Climate change is increasing the risk of severe 'food shocks...

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Young 'alien Jupiter' planet discovered

<figure class="lead media-landscape full-width has-caption" style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 32px -54.21875px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><img alt="51 Eridani b" class="js-image-replace" height="360" src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/E31A/production/_84883185_84883120.jpg" style="-webkit-user-select: none; border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 645.78125px;" width="640" /></span></span><figcaption class="media-caption" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="media-caption__text" style="border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.23077; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white;">The young, Jupiter-like world could yield clues to the formation of our own Solar System</span></span></figcaption></figure><div class="story-body__introduction" style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">A planet 100 light-years away resembles an infant version of Jupiter, astronomers say.</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 23px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">The new world, known as 51 Eridani b, is only 20 million years old - a toddler by astronomical standards.</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">The alien world could yield clues to the formation of our Solar System, which has an unusual lay-out.</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">The find was made by the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI), which looks for faint, young planets orbiting bright, relatively nearby stars.</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">The new world shows the strongest methane signature ever detected on an alien planet. Previous Jupiter-like exoplanets have shown only faint traces of methane, making them very different from the heavy methane atmospheres of gas giants in our Solar System.</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">The astronomers also detected water, using GPI's spectrometer instrument.</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">These findings indicate that it might be similar to planets in our Solar System, yielding additional clues to the formation of giant, astronomical bodies.</span></div> <figure class="media-landscape full-width has-caption" style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 24px -24.640625px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="51 Eridani b" class="js-image-replace" datasrc="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/1584A/production/_84883188_84883186.jpg" height="550" src="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/1584A/production/_84883188_84883186.jpg" style="-webkit-user-select: none; border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 616.203125px;" width="640" /><figcaption class="media-caption" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="media-caption__text" style="border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.23077; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white;">The GPI detects alien planets through a process of direct imaging</span></span></figcaption></figure><div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">The vast majority of alien solar systems that have been discovered are very different from our own, with massive planets - so-called "hot Jupiters" - orbiting close to their stars. This is partly because such systems are easier to detect with the techniques currently used to search for planets orbiting distant stars.</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">"Previous search methods couldn't find systems like our own, with small, rocky worlds close to their star and large, gas giants at large distances like Jupiter and Saturn," said co-author James Larkin, from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">"The search for large planets at large separations from their star is exactly the goal of GPI. These solar systems are likely much more similar to our own."</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">Studying such worlds should reveal how common our Solar System architecture truly is.</span></div> <h2 class="story-body__crosshead" style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 2rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">A tale of two theories</span></h2> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">Astronomers believe the gas giants in our Solar System formed slowly - by building up a large core over a few million years and then pulling in a huge amount of hydrogen and other gases to form an atmosphere. This is known as a "cold-start".</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">But the Jupiter-like exoplanets that have been discovered so far are much hotter than models have predicted. This hints that they could have formed quickly - as gas collapses to make a scorching planet in what is known as a "hot-start".</span></div> <figure class="media-landscape full-width has-caption" style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 16px; margin: 24px -24.640625px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="Gemini South" class="js-image-replace" datasrc="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/DDA3/production/_84893765_84883189.jpg" height="640" src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/DDA3/production/_84893765_84883189.jpg" style="-webkit-user-select: none; border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 616.203125px;" width="640" /><figcaption class="media-caption" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="media-caption__text" style="border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.3rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.23077; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white;">The GPI is installed at the Gemini Observatory in Chile</span></span></figcaption></figure><div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">The core build-up process can also form rocky planets like the Earth. But the fast collapse process might only make giant gas planets. The planets in our Solar System are 4.5 billion years old, but at just 20 million years old, 51 Eridani b might be young enough to reveal clues about how it was created.</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">"This planet really could have formed the same way Jupiter did; the whole solar system could be a lot like ours," said co-author Bruce Macintosh, from Stanford University's Kavli Institute.</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">The new gas giant is roughly twice the mass of Jupiter. Until now, the gas giant planets that have been directly detected have been much larger - five to 13 times Jupiter's mass.</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">It orbits a little further from its parent star than Saturn does from the Sun and has a temperature of 430C (800F), hot enough to melt lead, but still rather cold compared with other alien gas giants, which reach temperatures above 540C (1,000F).</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">The Gemini Planet Imager is installed on the 8m Gemini South Telescope in Chile. It began science operations in 2014.</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">Other scientific instruments designed to detect exoplanets do so indirectly, by, for example, detecting the dip in starlight as a planet passes in front of its parent sun. GPI instead searches for light from the planet itself - referred to as direct imaging.</span></div> <div style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: white;">The astronomers use adaptive optics to sharpen the image of a star, and then block out the starlight. Any remaining incoming light is then analysed, with the brightest spots indicating a possible planet.</span></div>

Young 'alien Jupiter' planet discovered

The young, Jupiter-like world could yield clues to the formation of our own Solar System A planet 100 light-years away resembles an infant ...

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What ‘100 Percent Effective’ Means for That Ebola Vaccine

<figure class="post-thumbnail" itemprop="associatedMedia" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><img alt="A health worker, left, injects a man in his arm with an Ebola vaccine in Conakry, Guinea, March 7, 2015. The World Health Organization will start large-scale testing of an experimental Ebola vaccine in Guinea on Saturday to see how effective it might be in preventing future outbreaks of the deadly virus. The West African nations of Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea have been hardest hit in the yearlong Ebola outbreak, which is estimated to have left more than 9,800 people dead. (AP Photo/ Youssouf Bah)" class="attachment-larg wp-post-image disappear appear" height="388" src="http://goldenzine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/AP692948503183-582x388.jpg" style="border: 0px; display: block; height: auto; max-width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: all 0.4s ease-in-out; vertical-align: middle;" width="582" /></figure><div class="entry-content-data " style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; float: left; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-right: 20px; position: relative; width: 164px; z-index: 10;"> </div> <div style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px;"> LAST WEEK, THE medical journal the Lancet published preliminary results on the efficacy of an Ebola vaccine in Guinea, and everybody got really excited—especially about one particular figure. The vaccine, the results suggested, was 100 percent effective at protecting against Ebola, a thrilling prospect in the face of an epidemic that has killed more than 11,000 people. That number is why <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD11" style="background-attachment: scroll !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-color: transparent !important; background-image: none !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position: 0% 50%; background-repeat: repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-width: 1px !important; color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; cursor: pointer !important; display: inline !important; float: none !important; padding: 0px 0px 1px !important; position: static; text-decoration: underline !important;">Doctors Without Borders</span> is recommending distribution of the vaccine begin as soon as possible in the west African countries where Ebola is still killing people.</div> <div style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px;"> But that number probably means less than you think it does. It’s based on incomplete data, so it doesn’t have the statistical clout it should. And it never will. Based on the vaccine’s early success, the trial’s runners decided that all participants in the study should get it immediately after exposure. That’s a perfectly reasonable, humane reaction, but it also means that the researchers will never be able to collect better data on the vaccine’s efficacy, which is what regulators look for when they’re deciding to <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD4" style="background-attachment: scroll !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-color: transparent !important; background-image: none !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position: 0% 50%; background-repeat: repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-width: 1px !important; color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; cursor: pointer !important; display: inline !important; float: none !important; padding: 0px 0px 1px !important; position: static; text-decoration: underline !important;">approve</span> a drug. In other words, the vaccine’s early success could make it harder for people to get it down the line.</div> <div style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px;"> The main thing that makes the new vaccine, rVSV-ZEBOV, seem so great? There’s simply nothing else available. Trials of Ebola vaccines have been almost impossibly difficult to pull off. In the midst of a massive public health crisis, international and local <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD3" style="background-attachment: scroll !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-color: transparent !important; background-image: none !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position: 0% 50%; background-repeat: repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-width: 1px !important; color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; cursor: pointer !important; display: inline !important; float: none !important; padding: 0px 0px 1px !important; position: static; text-decoration: underline !important;">health organizations</span> had to design studies that they could carry out in unstable, sometimes remote regions while producing useful data about safety and efficacy. “It’s a high-risk thing to take on a large scale vaccine trial,” says Anne Schuchat, director of the CDC’s National Center for <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD2" style="background-attachment: scroll !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-color: transparent !important; background-image: none !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position: 0% 50%; background-repeat: repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-width: 1px !important; color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; cursor: pointer !important; display: inline !important; float: none !important; padding: 0px 0px 1px !important; position: static; text-decoration: underline !important;">Immunization</span> and Respiratory Diseases. “It usually takes a few years to lay the groundwork.”</div> <div style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px;"> With that in mind, this clinical trial’s speed—moving from Phase I safety to Phase III efficacy tests in under a year—is impressive. But by the time efficacy trials started around April, the epidemic had already begun to calm down. That was a great thing for west Africa—but not such a good thing for statisticians. With fewer people exposed to Ebola, it’s harder for studies like the one in Guinea to find community clusters where it makes sense to test the vaccine. The problem was even more pronounced for a parallel study being carried out in Sierra Leone by the CDC and their partners, which focused on testing the vaccine’s ability to prevent infection in health care workers.</div> <div style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px;"> Here’s why: The Guinea trial of the vaccine tested efficacy by comparing infection rates in two groups. One got vaccinated one to three days after confirmation of an Ebola infection nearby; the other got vaccinated three weeks later. The Sierra Leone trial, in contrast, delayed vaccination to one of their groups by a full six months. Because the epidemic subsided in the intervening months, it’s hard to know what the resulting data actually means. Did the vaccine stop infections, or did the infections just stop? “As the Sierra Leone epidemic has come under control, we think it’s not likely that we’re going to be able to measure efficacy in our trial,” Schuchat says.</div> <div style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px;"> That makes the Guinea trial even more important. Typically, regulators like the US<span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD5" style="background-attachment: scroll !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-color: transparent !important; background-image: none !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position: 0% 50%; background-repeat: repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-width: 1px !important; color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; cursor: pointer !important; display: inline !important; float: none !important; padding: 0px 0px 1px !important; position: static; text-decoration: underline !important;">Food and Drug Administration</span> require very high standards of proof to approve a vaccine, especially for preventive use—like getting a shot for Hepatitis B before traveling. In terms of efficacy data those regulators will look at, Guinea is it. And now there’s an extra wrinkle: Because the vaccine’s interim results looked so good, the Guinea trial is no longer randomizing the <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD12" style="background-attachment: scroll !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-color: transparent !important; background-image: none !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position: 0% 50%; background-repeat: repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-width: 1px !important; color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; cursor: pointer !important; display: inline !important; float: none !important; padding: 0px 0px 1px !important; position: static; text-decoration: underline !important;">recipients</span> of the vaccine. Everybody who gets placed into one of the study’s clusters will get it immediately, no delay. Again: great for west Africa, not so good for the statisticians.<br />What the statisticians do have to work with—that 100 percent efficacy—isn’t as mind-blowing as you might assume. Of the immediately-vaccinated people, none displayed <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD1" style="background-attachment: scroll !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-color: transparent !important; background-image: none !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position: 0% 50%; background-repeat: repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-width: 1px !important; color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; cursor: pointer !important; display: inline !important; float: none !important; padding: 0px 0px 1px !important; position: static; text-decoration: underline !important;">symptoms</span> 10 or more days after vaccination, compared to 16 infections in the group of 2,380 that was assigned to get vaccines three weeks late. (It take two to 21 days for symptoms to manifest after infection, so a person who came down withsymptoms in those first 10 days could have been infected before the vaccine took effect.)</div> <div style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px;"> Those 16 infections in the delayed vaccination group are what makes the 100 percent efficacy statement a little less awesome. From press <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD9" style="background-attachment: scroll !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-color: transparent !important; background-image: none !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position: 0% 50%; background-repeat: repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-width: 1px !important; color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; cursor: pointer !important; display: inline !important; float: none !important; padding: 0px 0px 1px !important; position: static; text-decoration: underline !important;">reports</span> last week, you’d think the vaccine protected every single person who received it. But it actually just means that it prevented Ebola infection in the subset of those people who were actually exposed to the virus. And exposure levels, thanks to the waning epidemic, were actually pretty low—meaning the total opportunities for the vaccine to show its stuff were pretty limited.</div> <div style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px;"> In the group of 4,123 people who were supposed to get the vaccine as soon as possible, 2,109 people didn’t actually get it—they were too young, breastfeeding, or declined to consent to the study. Of those unvaccinated people, only eight got Ebola. Eight out of 2,109! It’s reasonable to assume that a similar number of people who actually got the vaccine were exposed. That means that in reality the vaccine only prevented, ballpark, eight infections in a group of 2,014 people. Not a ton to base a statistical analysis on.</div> <div style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px;"> Now, the trial’s runners are put in a difficult position: The study as they originally designed it is functionally over. A few more data points may come out to supplement the original efficacy analysis in the Guinea trial, but it’s only possible for those numbers to go down. “It won’t budge that much,” says study co-author Rebecca Grais, of Doctors Without Borders. “But if you added, let’s say, a couple of vaccine failures, it’ll decrease the efficacy.”</div> <div style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px;"> Those numbers, even if they get <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD10" style="background-attachment: scroll !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-color: transparent !important; background-image: none !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position: 0% 50%; background-repeat: repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-width: 1px !important; color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; cursor: pointer !important; display: inline !important; float: none !important; padding: 0px 0px 1px !important; position: static; text-decoration: underline !important;">knocked</span> down a few notches, will still be pretty phenomenal. But thanks to the design of the other major vaccine study, they’re the only phenomenal results regulatory agencies will get to look at. Going forward, the two main trials of rVSV-ZEBOV in Guinea and Sierra Leone will have to combine forces and present a patchwork combination of early efficacy data along with information about safety and the immune response that the vaccine provokes. (The Sierra Leone sponsors, including the CDC, don’t think they’ll get efficacy, but they expect to get plenty of good safety and immunogenicity data.) “It’ll be an<span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD8" style="background-attachment: scroll !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-color: transparent !important; background-image: none !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position: 0% 50%; background-repeat: repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-width: 1px !important; color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; cursor: pointer !important; display: inline !important; float: none !important; padding: 0px 0px 1px !important; position: static; text-decoration: underline !important;">accumulation</span> and triangulation of data,” says Grais.</div> <div style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px;"> That process will be difficult, because the trials were designed to answer different questions, explain Grais and Schucher. The Guinea trial looks at a ring vaccination scheme—testing the contacts (and contacts of contacts) of an Ebola-infected person to see if a vaccine can act fast enough to stop the spread in a community. While the answer so far appears to be yes, that’s not a yes to the question posed by the Sierra Leone trial: whether a vaccine can offer long-term protection against infection for people like health care workers.</div> <div style="background-color: white; color: #7e7e7e; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px;"> The early results out of Guinea were enough to convince the trial’s data safety and monitoring board to pull the <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD6" style="background-attachment: scroll !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-color: transparent !important; background-image: none !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position: 0% 50%; background-repeat: repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-width: 1px !important; color: rgb(0, 153, 0) !important; cursor: pointer !important; display: inline !important; float: none !important; padding: 0px 0px 1px !important; position: static; text-decoration: underline !important;">emergency brake</span> and start giving the vaccine to every person in the study. Now they’ll just have to hope that regulators agree.</div>

What ‘100 Percent Effective’ Means for That Ebola Vaccine

LAST WEEK, THE medical journal the Lancet published preliminary results on the efficacy of an Ebola vaccine in Guinea, and everybody got ...

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